Indian benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty closed higher, recovering from previous losses, driven by a global market rebound, a pause in Israel-Iran hostilities, and a rally in bank stocks.
Analysts predict that developments in US-Iran negotiations, fluctuations in crude oil prices, and key global economic data will be the primary drivers of gold and silver prices in the coming week, with a strong focus on talks in Switzerland.
Indian equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a significant tumble in early trade, with the Sensex tanking nearly 700 points, driven by uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations, a fresh spike in crude oil prices, and persistent foreign fund outflows.
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, saw a significant rebound in early trade, driven by a decline in crude oil prices. This drop followed US President Donald Trump's announcement of progress in negotiations with Iran towards an agreement to end the war, leading to a temporary pause in 'Project Freedom' to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Track Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex performance and key global triggers.
Crude oil prices are projected to fall significantly this year, driven by hopes of a peace deal between the US and Iran, which could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a notable drop in Chinese demand for seaborne crude imports.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced volatile trade, declining in early deals before fluctuating, as investors reacted to unabated foreign fund outflows and rising geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in West Asia.
Indian stock markets are set to be influenced by developments in US-Iran negotiations, crude oil prices, and foreign investor activity in the upcoming holiday-shortened week, according to market analysts.
India's crude oil imports from Russia reached a record high of approximately 2.73 million barrels per day (mbpd) in June, driven by discounts of $2-5 a barrel. This surge comes as the West Asia crisis disrupted supplies from traditional sources and China reduced its own purchases, leading Russia to offer more favourable terms to India.
The United Arab Emirates has announced its decision to withdraw from OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance, effective May 1, 2026, signalling a significant policy-driven evolution in its long-term energy strategy aimed at aligning with domestic economic goals and increased production investment.
The United Arab Emirates has announced its decision to withdraw from OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance, effective May 1, 2026, signalling a significant policy-driven evolution in its long-term energy strategy aimed at aligning with domestic economic goals and increased production investment.
The Indian government has imposed a new windfall gains tax of Rs 3 per litre on petrol exports, while simultaneously reducing the levy on diesel to Rs 16.5 per litre and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) to Rs 16 per litre, effective May 16.
The Indian rupee depreciated by 34 paise to close at 93.78 against the US dollar, marking its third consecutive session of decline. This fall is attributed to escalating crude oil prices driven by uncertainty surrounding US-Iran peace talks and fresh attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside significant foreign institutional investor outflows from domestic equity markets.
The Indian equity market is set for an event-heavy week, with analysts pointing to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) interest rate decision, developments in the US-Iran situation, and crude oil prices as the primary determinants of market trends.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has strongly defended India's decision to purchase Russian crude oil, stating that the country's energy choices are based on cost and availability, and highlighting the West's 'hypocrisy' in criticising India while historically supplying weapons used against it.
Indian equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rallied in early trade, driven by reports of a second round of talks between the US and Iran, which are fostering hopes for a resolution to the West Asia conflict, coupled with Brent crude oil prices trading below the USD 100 per barrel mark.
India has significantly reduced Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) prices for international airlines by 27% due to easing global fuel benchmarks, while simultaneously increasing commercial LPG and 5-kg cylinder prices to record highs.
The Indian rupee rebounded 50 paise from its all-time closing low to settle at 96.36 against the US dollar, driven by retreating crude oil prices, signs of easing geopolitical friction, and likely central bank intervention.
The United States has announced it will not renew sanctions exemptions for the purchase of Russian and Iranian oil, ending a 30-day waiver that allowed some countries, including India, to continue importing Russian oil despite sanctions related to the Ukraine war.
A US-sanctioned tanker carrying Iranian crude oil is heading to India, marking the resumption of oil imports from Iran after seven years.
The Indian rupee gained 2 paise to settle at 93.33 against the US dollar, driven by positive sentiment in domestic equity markets and renewed hopes for US-Iran talks, despite rising WPI and CPI inflation.
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed lower, primarily due to a sharp sell-off in IT stocks, a fresh surge in crude oil prices, and sustained outflows from foreign institutional investors. The Sensex dropped over 300 points, while the Nifty declined by 77.95 points.
Indian refiners are recalibrating their crude sourcing strategy due to supply disruptions in West Asia, leading to Venezuela and Brazil emerging as top five suppliers in April, replacing traditional sources like Iraq and the United States.
The United States has extended a waiver from sanctions to allow countries to buy petroleum products from Russia by a month, days after it ruled out renewal of the special measure.
Amidst a sharp run-up in gold and silver prices, investors are advised to rebalance their portfolios by booking partial profits in precious metals and reallocating to domestic equities and debt, according to financial experts.
Despite the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) and the government's recent initiatives to attract foreign capital, which are expected to alleviate pressure on long-duration bonds, most debt fund managers are maintaining a cautious stance, favouring shorter-duration papers due to global uncertainties and potential future rate hikes.
'Markets never fully lose hope. But an important shift could come if the Strait remains closed -- moving from high prices to no prices.'
Aviation fuel prices for domestic airlines remain unchanged, providing stability for local carriers, while commercial LPG and 5-kg cylinders see a significant rate hike due to rising international energy costs.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Friday warned that India's limited crude oil reserves of about 100 million barrels - sufficient for only 40-45 days of consumption - leave the country particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing war in West Asia.
Trump's remarks marks one of the most direct rebukes yet from Washington to its allies over their refusal to support US-led military operations in Iran and over the energy crisis triggered by disruptions in the Persian Gulf.
Indian equities are experiencing their sharpest rebound in years, with the BSE 500 index rallying 12.1 per cent so far this month, echoing Covid-era recoveries despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and earnings risks.
In the present hyper-connected world, there are many domestic and global factors that affect financial markets. Of them, the most powerful and often least predictable are geopolitical events, which often boil down to one diplomatic headline.
India and the United States have reviewed progress on a proposed interim bilateral trade agreement, discussing market access, digital trade, and non-tariff barriers, as they race to finalise a deal before a temporary 10 per cent US tariff regime expires on July 24.
Analysts predict continued volatility in Indian equity markets due to domestic macroeconomic data, F&O expiry, global developments including US tariff policies, and geopolitical tensions.
Two days after Russian President Vladimir Putin concluded his visit to India, during which he assured that Moscow would remain a reliable energy supplier, the Kremlin on Monday said that India, as a sovereign nation, is free to buy oil from sources it deems beneficial. It expressed confidence that New Delhi will continue to prioritise its economic interests.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) cap on banks' forex positions provided only a temporary boost to the rupee, with the currency quickly reversing gains and breaching the 95-per-dollar mark due to persistent underlying pressures.
MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said India's energy decisions are guided by national interest.
India is closely monitoring developments related to a proposed American legislation that seeks to impose up to 500 per cent tariff on countries procuring Russian crude oil.
'So far our production is not affected. But every day the situation prolongs, it does bring risks in terms of shipments getting delayed.'
From the Sensex firms, Adani Ports, NTPC, Power Grid, HCL Tech, Tata Steel, Sun Pharma, Trent and Asian Paints were among the major gainers. However, Bharat Electronics, Eternal, Mahindra & Mahindra and Maruti were among the laggards.
The big question is whether Trump is any longer in command of the situation. For all practical purposes, the war seems set to cascade as the US is preparing for a potential ground operation in Iran and threatens to destroy 'bridges next, then electric power plants', points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
